Pump Costs Set to Climb Again as Brent Crude Tests $115
Drivers across the UAE heading out for the morning school run and daily commute are facing the prospect of another hit at the filling station, with November tracking toward a fourth consecutive month of fuel price increases.
Brent crude tested $115 a barrel on Friday, pushing past September’s peak and heightening the risk of another markup when the Fuel Price Committee conducts its end-of-month review. For motorists already budgeting around October’s rates, where Super 98 sits at Dh4.40, Special 95 at Dh4.28, E-Plus 91 at Dh4.21, and diesel at Dh4.80 per litre, the climb represents a continuation of a steep upward trend that has seen pump prices rise by more than 70 per cent since March.
While ship-tracking data shows Gulf crude flows have recovered to between 80 and 90 per cent of pre-war levels, analysts point out that supply volume alone won’t stabilize the market. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted last week that up to 14 million barrels of oil a day are moving through the Strait of Hormuz, but persistent threats to shipping keep a heavy risk premium baked into global energy pricing.
“Ongoing threats to shipping and persistent uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz continue to support prices,” said George Pavel, general manager at Naga.com Middle East in Abu Dhabi’s ADGM. “The key change is that the market is increasingly pricing the risk.”
That sentiment is echoed by financial analysts watching buyer behavior shift as regional instability drags on. Ahmad Assiri, a research strategist at Pepperstone, noted that many buyers have grown price-insensitive amid elevated uncertainty, adding that any sustained price decline requires genuine confidence in secure shipping routes. Compounding the pressure, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels have stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia this month, pushing crude to five-month highs.
Jordan Lawrence, chief executive of London-based financial services firm Damisa, explained that October’s rates already rose significantly and that the upcoming committee review will factor in full-month international averages, refined-product prices, and operational costs. Even with the climb, local rates remain well below international benchmarks seen elsewhere, such as Britain, where unleaded petrol and diesel average £1.75 (Dh8.61) and £1.99 (Dh9.79) per litre respectively.
