(Credit - National Center of Meteorology)
Heavy Rain and Warmer Temps Forecast for UAE Winter as El Niño Hits 96%
The National Center of Meteorology has issued a seasonal forecast predicting above-average rainfall and higher temperatures across the United Arab Emirates from November 2026 to March 2027. Municipal infrastructure teams, outdoor event managers, and logistics operators across the country face an increased risk of severe weather conditions as global climatic drivers shift significantly.
Pacific Ocean Warming Reaches 3 Degrees Above Reference Average
Current climate indicators show a 96% probability of El Niño activity continuing through February, with direct atmospheric effects extending across the UAE until April 2027. Climate models indicate the phenomenon will peak during October and November 2026, driving sea surface temperatures in the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean roughly 3 degrees Celsius above the reference average. The National Center of Meteorology confirmed that the late-stage period of this cycle presents the highest probability for strong local weather events if favorable atmospheric conditions align.
The updated seasonal report follows oceanographic measurements from September, when tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures remained noticeably higher than seasonal norms, establishing the groundwork for a strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation phase.
